World Population to Hit 8 Billion this Month – UN
The world's population will hit eight billion people by mid-November, according to UN projections, and will continue to rise in the decades to come, albeit more slowly and with regional differences.
World Population to Hit 8 Billion this Month – UN
The world’s population will hit eight billion people by mid-November, according to UN projections, and will continue to rise in the decades to come, albeit more slowly and with regional differences.
The primary conclusions from the UN analysis are as follows:
Slowing of population growth
On November 15, the UN Population Division predicts that there will be eight billion people on Earth, more than three times the 2.5 billion people who were counted in the world in 1950.
The UN Population Fund’s Rachel Snow told AFP that the rate of population increase worldwide has significantly slowed down since reaching a peak in the early 1960s.
Between 1962 and 1965, annual growth peaked at 2.1 percent; by 2020, it was at or below 1 percent.
Considering the projected continuous decline in fertility rates, that percentage may drop as low as 0.5 percent by 2050.
Will we reach our peak at a certain point?
The UN estimates that the population will continue to grow to around 8.5 billion in 2030, 9.7 billion in 2050, and a peak of approximately 10.4 billion in the 2080s due to the rise in life expectancy and the number of people who are of reproductive age.
The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), based in the US, predicted in a study from 2020 that the world’s population will peak by 2064, never exceeding 10 billion, and then drop to 8.8 billion by 2100.
Lead researcher on the IHME study Stein Emil Vollset told AFP: “We are lower than them (the UN) and I think we have a fair explanation.”
The human population will only reach nine to ten billion people, according to the University of Washington professor, under their “very different fertility model.”
Reduction in fertility rates
The UN estimates that in 2021, the average fertility rate was 2.3 children born to a woman over the course of her lifetime, down from around five in 1950. By 2050, the UN predicts the rate would drop to 2.1.
According to Snow, “we’ve reached a point where the majority of countries and the majority of people in this planet are living in a country that is below replacement fertility,” or around 2.1 children per woman.
A world-wide aging
The average life expectancy has been rising, reaching 72.8 years in 2019—a nine-year rise from 1990—and is a major contributor to the world’s population expansion. The UN also projects that by 2050, the average person would live for 77.2 years.
Because of this and the fall in fertility, it is anticipated that the percentage of individuals over 65 will increase from 10% in 2022 to 16% in 2050.
In addition to requiring significantly more elderly care, this global graying will have an influence on job markets and national pension systems.
A growing number of nations, according to Snow, are contacting her agency to learn how UNFPA might “help us better understand what we may do to enhance our population.”
Exceptional diversity
Major regional variances exist below the worldwide averages.
For instance, according to UN estimates, only eight countries—the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines, and Tanzania—will account for more than half of the population growth by 2050.
According to Snow, who claims that the disparity “has never been as enormous as it is today,” the average age in different regions is also significant, currently standing at 41.7 years in Europe and 17.6 years in Sub-Saharan Africa.
In the future, Snow predicts, “we may be closer in age, largely old,” unlike the past, when countries’ average ages were primarily young.
Some scholars think that in the future, geopolitics may be significantly influenced by these regional demographic inequalities.
India will outperform China
The two most populous nations, China and India, will switch places atop the podium as early as 2023, according to the UN, which serves as another evidence of shifting tendencies.
According to UN estimates, China’s population of 1.4 billion will gradually start to decline and will reach 1.3 billion by 2050.
Only 800 million people could still call China home by the turn of the century.
India’s population, which is currently only slightly smaller than China’s, is projected to overtake its northern neighbor in 2023 and increase to 1.7 billion people by 2050, even though its fertility rate has already dipped below the replacement level.
The UN predicts that in 2050, the United States will still be tied with Nigeria for third place in terms of population with 375 million people.
