Report: China to have at least 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030

According to a US military analysis, China’s nuclear weapons program has accelerated, which coincides with rising tensions over Taiwan. China’s compliance with international accords on biological and chemical weapons testing is also questioned by the Pentagon.

According to a new US military prediction, China will have at least 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030, indicating a dramatic acceleration of its nuclear weapons program.

In its most recent report, the Pentagon dramatically upped its estimate of China’s projected nuclear weapon capacity in the next years.

Beijing might have 700 warheads by 2027, according to the report, and that number would rise in the years after that.

While China’s nuclear arsenal would be less than that of the United States and Russia, observers say it raises worries since it comes at a time when Beijing is becoming more assertive, particularly in its own backyard.

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According to prior estimates, China’s arsenal would reach 400 by the end of the decade.

The United States has repeatedly urged China to join it and Russia in a new arms limitation agreement.

The Pentagon underlined tensions over the self-ruled island of Taiwan, which China regards as a renegade province, in its yearly report to Congress on China’s military capability, as well as China’s chemical and biological programs and technological developments.

It acknowledged that open combat was unlikely, but endorsed a growing belief in the United States that China’s military, known as the People’s Liberation Army or PLA, is committed to threaten America in all fighting domains, including air, land, sea, space, and cyberspace.

According to the study, China was developing a network of overseas bases and logistics hubs that “may interfere with” American military activities while also supporting Chinese military operations against the US.

“Over the next decade, the PRC [China] plans to modernize, diversify, and increase its nuclear forces,” it said, referring to the expanding size of China’s nuclear arsenal.

“The PLA’s evolving capabilities and concepts continue to strengthen [China’s] ability to ‘fight and win wars’ against a’strong enemy,’ which is most likely a euphemism for the US,” the report said.

What are China’s nuclear weapons capabilities?

The number of Chinese warheads was previously estimated to be in the “low 200s” by the Pentagon. In comparison, the United States has 3,750 nuclear weapons, of which 1,389 were deployed on September 1.

According to the Pentagon report, China may now have a nuclear triad, consisting of land, sea, and air-launched missiles, similar to what the US and Russia have possessed for decades.

The most recent development is an air-launched ballistic missile.

According to the article, the country’s military has begun construction on at least three ICBM silo fields, which will “cumulatively contain hundreds” of underground silos from which ICBMs may be launched.

China claims that its arsenal is a sliver of what the US and Russia have, and that it is willing to talk if Washington reduces its nuclear stockpile to China’s level.

President Joe Biden’s administration is conducting a complete review of its nuclear policy, but has not stated how concerns about Chinese actions would affect it.

The Pentagon assessment is predicated on the situation in December 2020, therefore it does not mention China’s alleged hypersonic weapon tests.

What is the risk?

Beijing has vowed to subjugate Taiwan, a well-established democracy, and its military has become more active in the strait that separates the island from the mainland.

The Pentagon paper highlighted a number of scenarios that Beijing could pursue, ranging from a coordinated blockade of Taiwan to a full-scale amphibious invasion, air and missile strikes, cyber attacks, and the seizure of offshore islands.

However, a senior US defense official briefed reporters following the report’s release, declining to declare if armed conflict between Beijing and Taipei was a possibility and refusing to indicate which scenario was the most plausible.

Separately, America’s top general indicated on Wednesday that China is unlikely to attempt to annex Taiwan in the next years.

“Based on my analysis of China, I don’t think it is likely in the near future – being defined as, you know, six, twelve, maybe 24 months, that sort of window,” said General Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

What other dangers are there?

The Pentagon report had a section on China’s biological weapons program, but it didn’t look into whether COVID-19 came from there.

It did, however, raise concerns about China’s compliance with international biological and chemical weapons treaties, noting research of “powerful poisons” carried out at military medical facilities.

After COVID-19 was discovered in late 2019 near Wuhan, where a biological research facility is located, there has been a surge of interest in China’s chemical and biological capabilities.

China has repeatedly denied that the virus was leaked from the specialized facility.