Premier League Predictions Match Week 2: Man Utd, Liverpool to win again
Newcastle to storm Villa Park, Brentford to remain buzzing at Crystal Palace
Saturday, 12.30 p.m., Liverpool vs. Burnley
This season, assistant referees are being encouraged to raise their flag with more confidence if there isn’t a clear goalscoring opportunity involving a potentially offside player, thanks to a minor change to the offside protocols. Prior to VAR, Premier League games had an average of nearly 4.2 offsides per game. With VAR in place for the past two seasons, that average has dropped to around 3.1, so it’s possible that it’ll start to rise again in the coming weeks.
Chris Wood will be caught offside three or more times in this one. With Virgil van Dijk back in their ranks, Liverpool are an offside winning machine, and Burnley’s direct style always results in last-line strays in this match. Burnley has been caught offside 21 times in the last four meetings between these two teams when Van Dijk and his instructed high-line have played. Only Jamie Vardy (59) has been caught offside more times in the last two seasons than Wood, so he’ll give us a run for our money.
PREDICTION: Liverpool will win by more than 1.5 goals.
Saturday, 3 p.m., Aston Villa vs. Newcastle
Dean Smith’s team is expected to immediately replace Jack Grealish’s numbers with the big-money talent drafted in. However, football is a much more complex beast than it appears on paper; remember, it’s a team sport, and it takes time for players to adjust to a new system, just as it takes time for the manager to find the right balance in the forward area.
Villa struggled at Watford last weekend, scoring twice despite having a non-penalty expected goal figure of just 0.29 against the newly promoted side. I’m not optimistic about their chances of creating and converting big chances in front of a home crowd, especially without Ollie Watkins.
I hope Steve Bruce continues to be fearless in his approach to the game. For lengthy stretches of Newcastle’s defeat against West Ham, they attacked cleverly and dangerously, with Allan Saint-Maximin, Callan Wilson, and Miguel Almiron all fitting into a high-energy system admirably. They have the ability to lead the Toon to victory on the road.
PREDICTION OF THE RESULTS: Newcastle will win.
Manchester City takes on Norwich City at 3 p.m. on Saturday.
Pep Guardiola’s team is expected to win for the first time in the Premier League season.
Of course, City are the far more likely victors, but given the negative feelings surrounding their pre-season preparation and their inability to put Hugo Lloris through many severe tests last weekend against Tottenham, I’d stay away at those odds at this point in the season.
Guardiola will be in a win-at-all-costs mindset, as he was last season against numerous relegation-threatened teams at home. At the Etihad Stadium, they won just 5-1 on aggregate in three games against Fulham, Sheffield United, and West Bromwich Albion. If you want to sway City to your side, bet on them to win and the game to end with under 2.5 goals.
PREDICTION OF THE RESULTS: CITY WINS
Saturday, 3 p.m., Leeds vs. Everton
I was expecting that the bookmakers would have overreacted to Leeds’ loss at Manchester United and offered a tempting price for a home win, but 5/4 with Sky Bet doesn’t excite me. However, I believe Leeds will be very good at home this season. Everton, on the other hand, will be set up to frustrate and have good quality in important places, particularly up front. This screams “sketch” to me.
Raphinha should enjoy playing in front of the Elland Road faithful this season, as the crowd’s roar should push him to drive at his full-back, something he excels at. This should continue to result in his opposite number being caught making fouls and receiving a yellow card. Last season, he received eight yellow cards and got Luke Shaw booked at Old Trafford last weekend. This weekend, Lucas Digne will be the one in charge of keeping an eye on him.
PREDICTION OF SCORING: Both teams will score.
Crystal Palace takes on Brentford at 3 p.m. on Saturday.
Take a look at the match costs for this one if you need any more proof of Crystal Palace’s relegation threat this season.
I was all for getting Brentford on my side before looking at the rates, but it appears that others are as well. Thomas Frank’s club appears to be a well-drilled, cohesive bunch with a sense of unity that was evident in their triumph over Arsenal. They also have quality in the offensive areas.
PREDICTION FOR THE SCORE: Both teams will score, and Brentford will win.
Saturday, 5.30 p.m., live on Sky Sports Premier League, Brighton vs. Watford
Brighton’s infatuation with betting markets appears to have reached a nadir.
This is a team that has only won nine of its 38 home games under Potter, averaging just 1.13 points per game in front of their home crowd. And, as evidenced by their lackluster performance against Burnley last weekend, not much has changed in terms of personnel during the summer. For the most part, a 2-1 victory exaggerated their performance. They can’t be trusted without a proven goalscorer, even at home against a newly promoted team.
Watford have won 19 of their 27 league games since Xisco Munoz was appointed, demonstrating that getting defensively organized in the Premier League makes you a difficult opponent to beat.
SCORE PREDICTION: Watford will win, although there will be few goals scored.
Southampton takes on Manchester United at 2 p.m. on Sunday.
Southampton’s performance last weekend did little to dispel the notion that they were a strong bet for relegation only a few weeks ago.
Against a mediocre Everton, they only had six shots and a predicted goal number of 0.8. To turn around the negative tide at St Mary’s, Ralph Hasenhuttl will need his new acquisitions to gel and bond quickly. Manchester United’s arrival is the last thing they need. If they avoid defeat on Sunday, they would equal Arsenal’s Premier League record of 27 games without a loss, which they achieved in 2004.
Last Saturday, Manson Greenwood, 19, appeared razor-sharp. Greenwood has scored seven goals in the Premier League since the beginning of April, averaging above a goal per game ratio.
His conversion rate of 23% distinguishes him as a high finisher, and my eye confirms a belief that he’s on his way to the top. He appears to be a safe bet to score this weekend.
SCORING PREDICTION: Manchester United will win, with Greenwood scoring.
Wolves at Tottenham, 2 p.m. on Sunday
You’d be forgiven for assuming Nuno Espirito Santo was still in charge of Wolves after their defeat to Leicester last weekend if you hadn’t been informed of any managerial changes in recent months. That isn’t always a bad thing, especially with Raul Jimenez back at the helm, but Wolves appear to be in desperate need of some new ideas. However, I’m not persuaded they’ll break anywhere near the top half.
Eric Dier in the shots market is one element that interests me from a betting standpoint. For some strange reason, the centre-back considers himself a threat from attacking free-kicks within shooting range – most likely as a result of his goal for England against Russia at the 2016 European Championships. With Harry Kane seizing the ball at every opportunity, Dier has rarely been given the chance to show off his so-called talents from range, but now that he’s out of the picture for the time being, Dier, who took an offensive free-kick against Arsenal in pre-season, is the most likely to step up. That, combined with the danger he poses when assaulting set pieces in the air, makes him a very appealing target for one or many shots.
PREDICTED SCORE: Tottenham win, over 2.5 goals
Arsenal takes on Chelsea at 4.30 p.m. on Sunday.
Arsenal has won the last three meetings between these two teams in all competitions. Many things, however, have altered since then. However, the two most crucial aspects are that Thomas Tuchel is now their manager and Romelu Lukaku is their striker. Chelsea are a unique species.
Chelsea has led the league in goals surrendered (13), clean sheets (12), and shots on target during Tuchel’s tenure (117). The foundations for a title-winning team are in place. So, what’s been missing all these time? Lukaku, to be precise.
During the same time span, their shot conversion rate was ranked 15th in the Premier League (nine per cent). Lukaku scored 24 league goals last season, which was four more than Timo Werner (6), Tammy Abraham (6), Olivier Giroud (4), and Kai Havertz combined (4). Lukaku is the game-changer.
Arsenal, on the other hand, appears to be in the early stages of a massive redevelopment project. In the defeat against Brentford, they were bullied all over the pitch and lacked the finishing ability to put a relatively inexperienced defense to the test. Mikel Arteta’s young team could learn yet another lesson in what it takes to compete for a title.
PREDICTION OF THE RESULTS: Chelsea will win.
West Ham vs Leicester, Monday 8.00pm
Brendan Rodgers appears to be under David Moyes’ control. The Hammers’ manager understands how to stop a Rodgers side. Last season, West Ham won both Premier League games against Leicester, 3-0 away and 3-2 at home, giving Moyes a record of five wins from ten league encounters versus the Leicester manager. Leicester had almost 65 percent of the ball in each of their wins last season, but Moyes had his squad well-drilled to defend deep and hit with great pace and power on the break. I expect the same here, with West Ham demonstrating last weekend at Newcastle that few clubs execute counter-attacking as ruthlessly as they do.
During those swift transitions, this type of game is prone to unscrupulous challenges, and five Leicester players were booked against the Hammers in the two encounters last season. Wilfred Ndidi was one of those players, averaging 2.23 fouls per game this season, making him the league’s sixth dirtiest player (from those that played a minimum of 500 minutes).
PREDICTION FOR THE SCORE: 2-1
