Importance of Next Three Games for Liverpool in the Race for Top Four

Following Liverpool’s exit from the Champions League, Jürgen Klopp, the manager of Liverpool, made an insightful observation about the team’s season, specifically about their need for clarity. He also commented on Manchester City and Arsenal, accurately addressing their current situation.

Over the past month or so, Liverpool has faced several matches that have been labeled as “season-defining.” These matches included the Merseyside derby against Everton, a game following a disappointing 3-0 loss to Wolves.

Additionally, their game against Newcastle United was considered a must-win match against a top-four competitor. Recently, Liverpool had back-to-back matches against Wolves and Manchester United at Anfield, which Jürgen Klopp described as a “super important week.” Liverpool managed to win all of these matches; however, there are still more crucial games on the horizon. Klopp is now looking ahead to a seven-day period in early April where Liverpool will face both Manchester City and Arsenal, two teams competing for the title, as well as travel to another big-six team, Chelsea.

“When we get back from the international break, we have a proper football weak ahead of us,” Klopp said after the 1-0 defeat against Real Madrid on Wednesday. “Three games, City, Chelsea, Arsenal, which will then probably define what we get out of it [the season].

“People will say that we lost it at Bournemouth, but this week is a pretty decisive one. So, we have to hope the boys come back healthy enough, in the right shape, and we will try it.”

A team’s prospects can be transformed by a strong run of form, as Liverpool has already shown. Following their loss to Wolves, Liverpool was in 10th place, trailing the top four by six spots and 11 points, albeit with a game in hand. However, after winning four games and drawing one in a span of five matches, Liverpool climbed up to fifth place, now only three points behind the top four, and still with a game in hand.

The reason why a strong run of form can be so impactful is due to the inconsistent performances of other teams competing for the top four. As of this weekend, both Tottenham and Newcastle had been averaging 1.8 points per game, and with Tottenham dropping points against Southampton, their record has likely worsened.

Over a stretch of six games, this translates to around 10 or 11 points. Therefore, if a team is able to win at least five matches and maybe draw one, they can make significant gains in the race for the top four.

However, for Liverpool, if they cannot secure a healthy return from their next three games (likely at least five points), it will be difficult for them to regain the ground lost in subsequent fixtures.

Their upcoming six-match run appears to be favorable, with matches against relegation-threatened teams like Leeds (away), Nottingham Forest (home), West Ham (away), and Leicester (away), as well as a crucial match against Tottenham at Anfield and a visit from Brentford.

Liverpool has faced difficulties against lower-ranked teams this season, as we noted following their loss to Bournemouth. The team has only managed to secure 19 points out of a possible 33 against the league’s bottom seven teams (as of March 12), equating to a return of just 1.73 PPG. In fact, Forest and Leeds have already beaten Klopp’s side this season.

Surprisingly, Liverpool actually has a better record against the big six, with 1.9 PPG up to this point.

Therefore, Klopp’s logic may not always be decisive, but he appears to be correct in emphasizing the importance of the team’s next three games. Liverpool cannot rely solely on their more favorable fixtures and must stay in touch with the top four during their most challenging sequence of matches of the season.