Ethiopia’s conflict could devolve into a full-fledged civil war.

The African Union’s envoy for the Horn of Africa warned Monday that the window of opportunity for a political solution to the crisis in northern Ethiopia is closing, as the country moves closer to civil war.

“The time has come for collective action in finding a long-term solution to avoid further escalation of the situation, which could have a direct impact on the strategic Horn of Africa region as a whole,” said Olusegun Obasanjo, the African Union’s special representative for the Horn of Africa.

Obasanjo told the United Nations Security Council that he met separately with Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and leaders of the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), as well as some allied groups, in Addis Ababa, where he arrived Thursday, to de-escalate tensions and seek the start of talks.

“All of the leaders here in Addis Ababa and in the north agree that their differences are political and that they require political solutions through dialogue,” he said. “As a result, this presents a window of opportunity for us to work together to help the Ethiopian people find a long-term solution to the ongoing crisis.”

On Tuesday, Obasanjo will travel to the northern Ethiopian regions of Amhara and Afar, where the TPLF has intensified its fighting, displacing thousands of people.

Fighting intensified in the weeks leading up to the one-year anniversary of the conflict’s start last week.

Tigrayan forces announced earlier this week that they were advancing on Addis Ababa, predicting that it would fall within months or weeks.

Ethiopia’s government declared a six-month state of emergency on Tuesday, urging residents to defend their neighborhoods if rebels entered the capital.

According to Agence France-Presse, Jaal Marroo, commander of the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA), a TPLF ally, the OLA posed “no threat” to ordinary civilians, but that Abiy and his ruling Prosperity Party must be “completely removed and cleared” before reconciliation can begin.

“We will make Ethiopia – and the Horn of Africa as a whole – a peaceful and stable place to live.” He stated, “I am very confident that there will be no conflict after Abiy Ahmed’s regime.”

Some countries and Western media, according to Ethiopia’s UN ambassador, have encouraged the TPLF.

“It is emboldened to the point where it threatens to destabilize a nation of 112 million people and unseat a popularly elected federal government,” Ambassador Taye Atske-Selassie said of the rebels. “We reiterate our call for this group, which has provided it with communications equipment, satellite information, weapons, and even fighters, to stop doing so.”

Concerns about civil war are growing.

The conflict has “reached disastrous proportions,” according to the UN’s political chief, and if not immediately halted, Africa’s second-most-populous country could be engulfed in all-out civil war.

“What is certain is that Ethiopia’s risk of devolving into a wider civil war is all too real,” Rosemary DiCarlo told the Security Council. “That would result in a humanitarian disaster and obliterate the future of such a significant country.”

The fighting, according to DiCarlo, is already threatening regional stability in the Horn of Africa.

“Intensifying violence in the wider region would have enormous political ramifications, compounding the many crises plaguing the Horn of Africa,” she added.

“The longer this conflict continues, the more difficult the road to peace becomes, and the more people will die,” said United States envoy Linda Thomas-Greenfield. “And, as you heard from High Representative Obasanjo, time is running out, and the window of opportunity is closing. I strongly urge all parties — all parties — to pull back from the precipice and lead their people toward peace.”

She went on to say that accusations that the US is biased in favor of one side are false.

“Let me be clear: we condemn all forms of violence. We condemn any and all violations and abuses of human rights committed by all parties.”

In a statement released Monday, Alice Wairimu Nderitu, the United Nations’ special adviser on the prevention of genocide, expressed concern about the rise in ethnically and religiously motivated hate speech, ethnic profiling, and incitement to violence.

“All of these are risk factors for atrocity crimes,” she cautioned.

Diplomacy at a high level

Along with Obasanjo, UN humanitarian director Martin Griffiths finished a four-day tour to Ethiopia on Monday.

During his tour, he visited Mekelle, Tigray’s capital, where the government maintains a de facto blockade on humanitarian aid delivery. According to the United Nations, no aid has arrived since October 18, and more than 5 million people are in desperate need.

On Friday, Griffiths met with Abiy and other top federal government officials.

Jeffrey Feltman, the United States’ envoy to the Horn of Africa, has been in the region since Thursday. Feltman is now in Addis Ababa, according to State Department official Ned Price.