Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed spearheaded a counter-offensive against rebel advances.

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed evoked memories of the country’s monarchs and emperors by leading a stunning counter-offensive against Tigrayan rebels who had threatened to depose him.

Mr Abiy was videoed and photographed in military fatigues, travelling through bushy and mountainous terrain, examining the horizon with binoculars, and addressing soldiers behind a clump of trees, in remarkable sights for a man who was named the Nobel Peace Prize’s 100th winner in 2019.

“Those who want to be counted among Ethiopia’s children, those who will be remembered by history, come up today for your nation.” “Let’s meet up in front,” he said.

Mr Abiy’s choice, according to Kjetil Tronvoll, a conflict studies professor at Norway’s Oslo New University College, helped turn the tide against the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF).

“His decision paid off, even if the photographs imply he was near to the front lines and not on the real battlefield fighting,” he said.

“It improved his generals’ morale, sparked a rise in Ethiopian nationalism, saw national heroes like Haile Gebrselassie come out in favor of the war effort, and thousands lined up to join the army and Amhara [ethnic group’s] militias.”

Attacks by drones
The TPLF had a number of setbacks. Its fighters had been at Debre Birhan town, around 130 kilometers (80 miles) from Addis Ababa’s capital, before being forced to return 400 kilometers to Weldiya. This means the rebels have lost control of key towns along the A2 highway, which connects Tigray to the federal government’s seat of power.

While Mr Abiy rallied his troops on the ground, drones reportedly obtained from China, Turkey, and Iran played a far greater role in forcing the TPLF to retreat, according to Prof Tronvoll: “China’s Wing Loong II allegedly proved to be the drone with the highest military capacity to take out tanks, heavy artillery, and to drop bombs against foot-soldiers in open terrain.”

Simultaneously, the government defied US and European Union (EU) attempts to negotiate a truce, portraying Western powers as TPLF allies — a viewpoint shared by Ethiopian running legend Haile Gebrselassie.

“We have witnessed the destruction or disintegration of Iraq, Syria, Yemen, and Libya. Ethiopia, on the other hand, is a country with a population of over 120 million people. As a result, any attempt to destabilize the country may backfire,” he told state media.

“I know our African brothers and sisters are behind us, and we’ve been resisting colonialism for generations together.”

“At the start of the conflict, Mr Abiy labeled the TPLF a junta against whom he was fighting a law-enforcement operation,” Prof Tronvoll said, “and he established the tone for such rhetoric to earn the support of African nations, as well as those countries that were rivals of the West.”

“But, like the emperors of the past, he accepted the pan-African narrative by branding the TPLF a proxy for imperialist powers and claiming to be fighting for Ethiopia’s grandeur.”

Popularity grew.
In November, Mr Abiy compared the TPLF’s attempt to undermine his government to the Italian invaders who were repelled in the famous Battle of Adwa in 1896 by the army of Emperor Menelik II, the founder of modern-day Ethiopia and an Amhara ethnic group member.

“To my fellow Ethiopians here and in the diaspora, I applaud your efforts in exposing the world the truth. We can overcome the existential threat that forces far and close pose to this historic nation if we work together. “We will carry #Ethiopia #ResilientlyOnwards as children of #Adwa,” he tweeted.

The TPLF was an Ethiopian guerrilla force that rose to power in 1991. It ruled the country until 2018, when Mr Abiy was elected following massive protests against its oppressive rule. Following a big clash with Mr Abiy over his reforms, it retreated to its heartland of Tigray, from where it launched an insurrection last year.

Mr Abiy earned the respect of many Ethiopians by traveling to the front lines to spearhead the struggle, according to UK-based Horn of Africa analyst Abdurahman Sayed, whose popularity had been waning as the rebels advanced.

Mr Abiy sent the message that he was willing to die for Ethiopia if required by departing his official residence and joining his troops, he said.

“He is enamored with Ethiopia’s rulers’ past, and he once informed an audience that his mother predicted he would become the seventh king.” He has done something comparable to how kings used to lead their armies into battle.”

Mr Abiy’s actions, according to Prof Tronvoll, were unique for a Nobel Peace Prize winner – an award he received in 2019 for halting hostilities with Eritrea and instituting democratic reforms in Ethiopia after decades of state brutality.

“Barack Obama earned the prize after becoming president of the United States and waging a drone war in Afghanistan, but he sat in the White House war room.” Mr. Abiy is the first to approach the front lines,” he stated.

The battle for a vital highway

Mr Abiy first travelled to the eastern front in late November, where the TPLF had already suffered serious losses thanks to special troops and militias from Ethiopia’s Afar region.

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“The Tigrayans’ next-door neighbors are the Afars. They are thought to be fighters in the past. From the age of 15, almost every Afar male would have a gun. They put up a spirited battle against the TPLF, and for the first time, Afar women joined the war,” Mr Abdurahman added.

“It demonstrated the intensity of animosity toward the TPLF as a result of the crimes committed by its fighters in Afar when they attempted to flee Tigray some six months ago.”

Mr Abdurahman sees this as a watershed moment in the war since it prevented the TPLF from crossing the border into Djibouti: “Ethiopia is landlocked, and Djibouti’s port is its economic lifeline.”

“If the TPLF had taken control of the road leading to the border, Ethiopia’s economy would have collapsed, no products would have reached Addis Ababa, and the odds of the city falling to the Tigrayans would have increased.”

Mr Abiy returned from the front lines after around two weeks, only to have his office announce this week that he has returned to lead the troops in seizing more Amhara land. The TPLF, on its part, claimed to have retaken Lalibela, the region’s medieval church town.

Prof Tronvoll believes Ethiopian President Abiy Ahmed has soiled his international image: “The ultimate goal of a Nobel Peace Prize should be peace, yet Mr Abiy has consistently ignored calls for a ceasefire, and his army have perpetrated widespread atrocities.”

Mr Abdurrahman, on the other hand, claimed that Mr Abiy had no choice but to fight since the TPLF was determined to reclaim power through force.

“We don’t know how long this conflict will last or how it will end, but Mr Abiy has demonstrated that he is not a coward.”