As the US and Russia prepare to meet over Ukraine, prospects are dimming.

With the destiny of Ukraine and maybe post-Cold War European stability on the line, the US and Russia are holding crucial strategic talks that might influence not only their relationship, but also the US’s relationship with its NATO allies. The outlook is grim.

Though the immediacy of a Russian invasion of Ukraine will be at the forefront of a series of high-level meetings beginning on Monday, there are a slew of lingering but largely unrelated disputes for Washington and Moscow to resolve if tensions are to be eased, ranging from arms control to cybercrime and diplomatic issues. The recent deployment of Russian troops in Kazakhstan may also have an impact.

With so much on the line and both sides warning of terrible consequences if they fail, the two sides have been preparing for a near-unprecedented flurry of action in Europe this week. However, the enormous disparity in their starting positions bodes ill for a quick conclusion, and distrust appears to be at an all-time high since the Soviet Union’s demise.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated flatly on Sunday that no breakthroughs are expected in the coming week. Instead, he believes that an agreement to de-escalate tensions in the short term and return to talks at a later date would be a more likely beneficial conclusion. However, there must be a de-escalation in the United States.

“It’s very difficult to see that happening when there’s an ongoing escalation,” Blinken said on ABC’s “This Week,” “when Russia has a gun to the head of Ukraine with 100,000 troops near its borders, the possibility of doubling that in very short order.”

Officials from the United States revealed some details of the administration’s stance on Saturday, which appear to fall far short of Russian demands. Officials said the US is willing to talk about limiting future offensive missile deployments in Ukraine and limiting American and NATO military exercises in Eastern Europe if Russia is willing to back off on Ukraine.

However, they also stated that if Russia intervenes in Ukraine, it will face severe economic consequences. These consequences might include considerable limitations on products exported from the United States to Russia, as well as potentially foreign-made products subject to US jurisdiction.

Sergei Ryabkov, the Russian Deputy Foreign Minister who will lead Russia’s delegation to the Geneva talks, reacted angrily to Blinken’s statement.

“Demands from the United States and other NATO countries that we take certain de-escalation steps on our soil are not being discussed.” In an interview with the Tass news agency, Ryabkov remarked, “This is a non-starter in the literal sense.”

Russia wants the negotiations to start with formally enforceable security guarantees for itself, such as a promise that NATO would not expand eastward and that US soldiers and weaponry will be removed from portions of Europe. However, the US and its allies claim that these are non-starters meant by Moscow to divert attention and create division.

They claim that any Russian military engagement in Ukraine will have “huge implications” that will severely impair Russia’s economy, even if the consequences have worldwide ramifications.

In order to thwart Russian attempts to foment discontent in the West, the Biden administration has gone out of its way to emphasize that neither Ukraine nor Europe as a whole would be left out of any conversation about Ukraine’s or Europe’s security.

Officials from the Biden administration admit that neither topic can be completely avoided when senior American and Russian diplomats meet in Geneva on Monday ahead of larger, more inclusive sessions in Brussels and Vienna on Wednesday and Thursday, which will go deeper into both problems.

Nonetheless, in recent weeks, the slogans “nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine” and “nothing about Europe without Europe” have become almost cliche in Washington, and senior US officials have gone so far as to say they expect Russia to lie about the content of Monday’s meeting in order to stoke divisions.

“We fully expect the Russian side to make public statements following the meeting on Monday that do not reflect the true substance of the discussions that took place,” a senior US official who will attend the talks said. The official spoke on the condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak publicly.

That diplomat and others have urged friends to treat anything Moscow says about the so-called Strategic Stability Talks with “great suspicion” and to wait until the American participants have briefed them before forming views.

Blinken has accused Russia of “gaslighting” and waging a full-fledged disinformation campaign aimed at blaming Ukraine, NATO, and especially the US for current tensions and undermining Western unity. He claimed that Russian President Vladimir Putin is waging an all-out assault on reality, ignoring Russia’s own provocative and disruptive activities over the last decade.

“Russia seeks to undermine the international system itself, to unravel our trans-Atlantic alliance, to erode our unity, and to press democracies into failure,” Blnken said on Friday, citing a litany of Russian transgressions ranging from military intervention in Ukraine and Georgia to chemical weapons attacks on Putin critics, election meddling in the United States and elsewhere, cybercrime, and support for dictators.

Despite many conversations between President Joe Biden and Putin, including an in-person encounter last summer, Blinken claims that such behavior persists, putting the post-World War II global order at jeopardy.

As a result, the United States and its allies are working harder to find common ground on both the warnings and the “grave penalties” that Russia will face if it advances against Ukraine. While there have been indications of togetherness, Blinken remains pessimistic about the negotiations’ chances of success.

“To the degree that there is progress to be made — and we hope there is — actual progress will be extremely difficult, if not impossible, to achieve in the face of Russian aggression,” he said.

Meanwhile, Russia has crafted a narrative in which it is a threatened victim of Western aggression, and it demands speedy outcomes from the talks, despite seemingly irreconcilable disagreements.

Putin has repeatedly warned that if the West refuses to meet Russia’s demands, Moscow will have to take unspecified “military-technical measures,” and has stated that NATO membership for Ukraine or the deployment of alliance weaponry there is a red line that Moscow will not allow the West to cross.

“We have nowhere to go,” Putin warned last month, adding that NATO could put missiles in Ukraine that could reach Moscow in four or five minutes. “They’ve pushed us to a point where we can’t go any more.” They’ve gotten to the point where we just have to tell them, ‘Stop!'”

According to a US official, Ryabkov and Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman, who would lead the US delegation, were scheduled to meet over a working dinner on Sunday night to discuss the next day’s meetings.